Jinhe Biological (002688): Benefit from the concentration of aquaculture to improve the transformation of chlortetracycline leading results
Abstract: 1. Global chloramphenicol oligopoly, growth in downstream demand boosted performance.The company has been cultivating in the field of veterinary drug additives for many years. It is tied with Chia Tai and is the world’s two oligarch for aquaculture.In the context of African swine fever, large-scale farming has higher requirements for biological control, and the market demand for chlortetracycline has expanded. It is expected that domestic chlortetracycline prices will remain high in 2019, and the company will benefit significantly. 2. Vaccines: The technological advantages are obvious, and future development is expected.The core competitiveness of the company’s round whole virus inactivated vaccine “Yuyuanbao” and live pig blue ear vaccine (PC strain) is high antigen purity and high antigen concentration.In 2017, the average total protein 四川耍耍网 content of all “Yuyuanbao” was below 100 μg / ml, and the concentration and intactness of intact circovirus particles were significantly higher than similar vaccines.Obtained production qualifications for live porcine parvovirus vaccine (NJ strain), inactivated swine erysipelas vaccine, live swine fever vaccine, etc., and the application for registration of importation of Mycoplasma hyorhinis-porcine circovirus type Ⅱ double vaccine has been steadily progressing.Ascension provides protection. 3. The starch business industry chain was extended, the third phase of the environmental protection project was completed, and the depreciation of the RMB increased exchange gains.Affected by the recovery of the downstream industrial chain, the sales of corn starch and co-products increased, and the increase in the price of corn starch increased to offset the impact of rising corn costs. After the completion of the third phase of environmental protection at the end of 2018, it is expected that capacity utilization will increase in 2019, and operating costs willSignificant decline; the rapid depreciation of RMB in H1 2019, and long-term exchange gains will significantly increase the company’s performance. Earnings forecast: Buy rating.It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019/2020/2021 will be 1.99/2.40/2.8.6 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.31/0.38/0.45 yuan.Give 25 times PE in 2019, corresponding to 2019 target price of 7.75 yuan, closing price 4 on August 23, 2019.94 yuan, up 56.88%, give “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: 1. The risk of rising raw material prices.The proportion of raw material corn in the company’s product cost has broken through, so the increase in corn price has an impact on the company’s product cost. 2. The risk of abnormal exchange rate fluctuations.The assets denominated in US dollars and the company’s overseas sales revenue are related to changes in exchange rates, so changes in exchange rates will have a certain impact on the company’s performance. 3. The risk of new product market development falling short of expectations. The company’s veterinary vaccine business has the risk of new product market expansion falling short of expectations. 4. Policy risks.The company’s overseas revenue accounts for a large proportion, so the risks of import and export policies have an impact on the company’s performance.