Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: 18 Years of Prosperous Production and Sales Prosperous, 19 Years of Product and Channel Optimization and Growth Guaranteed
I. Overview of the event On April 26, Shanxi Fenjiu released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report, 18 two companies realized operating income of 93.
8.2 billion, up from +47.
48%; net profit attributable 杭州夜网论坛 to mother 14.
67 ppm, previous + 54%; basic EPS is 1.
69 yuan, 7 cash dividends are planned for every 10 shares.
1Q1 company achieved revenue of 40.
58 trillion, +20 for ten years.
12%; net profit attributable to mother 8.
77 trillion, ten years +22.
58%, with a basic EPS of 1.
Second, the analysis and judgment of the 18-year revenue / profit growth rate is dazzling. The 19Q1 performance growth rate is stable.
8.2 billion, up from +47.
48%, revenue in the fourth quarter was 24.
66 trillion, +108 a year.
75%; net profit previously attributed to mother 14.
67 trillion, +54 a year.
01%, Q4 belongs to the mother net profit 2.
30,000 yuan, +46 a year.
45%; average gross profit margin 66.
21% per year -3.
The 62 singles were mainly affected by the re-integration of the gross margin of low-priced fen liquor.
Expense rate during the 18-year period is 23.
88% every year -2.
81 units, of which the sales expense ratio is 17.
34%, -0 per year.
55 units; management expense ratio 6.
83% every year -2.
21 units; financial expense ratio -0.
29%, -0 per year.
Overall, the company’s 18-year revenue growth rate exceeded the previous forecast (+ 40%), and the profit growth rate was the same as the previous forecast (50%?
60%), the company’s performance growth is dazzling.
In 19Q1, the company’s revenue / net profit was 40.
77 trillion, +20 for ten years.
12% / + 22.
58%; gross margin 71.
94%, ten years +0.
Period expense rate is 26.
28%, ten years +4.
99 units, of which the sales expense ratio is 20.
74%, ten years +3.
06 units; management expense ratio 3.
96%, ten years +0.
24 units; financial expense ratio 1.
58%, ten years +1.
Affected by the high base in 18Q1 and the unexpected pace of revenue recognition in 18Q4, 19Q1’s single-quarter revenue growth rate has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, but when 18Q4 + 19Q1 are added together, revenue +47.
56%, still maintaining high growth; advance receipts12.
3.0 billion, an increase of 4 every year.
8.4 billion, -4.
50 ppm, Q2 performance growth certainty is expected to improve.
Taking into account that at the end of 18 years, the first unlocking conditions for the company’s equity incentives are 2019 revenue growth and no less than 22.
2%, so we judge that the company’s revenue growth rate will increase in the next three quarters from 19Q1.
Two years of strong growth in liquor production and sales in 18 years to improve overall performance, brand and product structure has been integrated and optimized.
250,000 kiloliters, +38 in the past.
29%, of which high-priced wine / low-priced wine sales were 1.
870 thousand kiloliters, +36 each year.
91% / + 39.
6%, high-priced wine / low-priced wine income were 56.
60 ppm, at least +51.
58% / 25.
0%, two booms in production and sales ensure overall performance growth.
In 18 years, the company systematically integrated wine brands such as Fen Liquor and Bamboo Leaf Liquor, actively adjusted its product structure, introduced new products such as Blue and White Fen Liquor 50 and Chinese clothing, upgraded Panama series products, and accelerated the strategic layout of bamboo leaf green liquor.
Affected by this, the gross profit margin of high-priced wines for 75 years was 75.
18%, ten years +0.
53 averages, ton price +10 per year.
72%; low-price wine gross margin of 50.
72% a year -11.
63 units with a ton price of -16 per year.
It is expected that in the future, high-end products will pursue high gross profit, and low-end products will continue to pursue sales strategies.
Streamline sales channels, launch equity incentive plans, and enhance performance-driven 18-year competition.
Affected by mergers and acquisitions, the scope of merger of the company’s dealers has expanded. In 18 years, the number of dealers in and out of the company was 628/1726, with + 153% / 69% respectively.
19Q1 company has 2146 dealers, more than + 11%.
In addition, in 18 years, the company launched an equity incentive plan, which granted 5.95 million shares of shares to 395 middle and senior management personnel and business backbones. This plan was launched to deeply bind core backbones with the company’s interests and strengthen performance driving forces.
Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations The company is expected to achieve operating income of 115 to 21 years.
16 ppm, a year increase of + 23% / + 21% / + 19%; the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 19-21 is expected to be 19.
380,000 yuan, an annual increase of + 30% / + 27% / + 21%, according to the latest EPS of the corresponding EPS is 2.
39 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 26/21/17 times.
At present, the overall liquor sector is estimated to be 30 times. The company’s estimated level is lower than the industry average. Taking into account the long-term endogenous growth momentum brought by product structure and channel optimization, we maintain a “recommended” rating.
Fourth, risk warning: Liquor business expansion is slower than expected, gross profit margin has dropped significantly, and food safety issues.