Chengde Lulu (000848) 2018 financial report review: steady transition of new products and gradually increasing growth in 19 years
Event: On March 16, the company released its 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 21 in 2018.
2 ‰, increasing by 0 every year.
48%; net profit attributable to mothers4.
13 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.
Among them, Q4 company achieved revenue4.
48 ppm, a decrease of 18 per year.
80%, achieve net profit attributable to mother 0.
63 ppm, a reduction of 33 per year.
The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2018.
23 ppm, an increase of 251 over 2017.
48% point of view: the increase in ton prices has led to a slight increase in performance, and new product revenue has been slightly lower than expected.
The company achieved operating income in 201821.
20,000 yuan, a slight increase of 0 in ten years.
48%, distorting the continuous trend of revenue in 16 and 17 years.
First of all, the company’s performance has increased slightly. First, the plant protein beverage industry has ushered in a recovery in the background of Yili, Danone and other companies promoting soy milk and other products, and the upgrading of the company’s product structure.
Industry sales revenue increased by 11 in 2013.
92% slide all the way to 17 of 4.
97%, rose to 7 in 18 years.
More than 32%.
As the industry leader, the company took the lead in benefiting from the rapid growth of the industry.
Second, the company’s new product Lulu went public, which boosted the company’s ton revenue.
The price of the new Lulu is 25% higher than the price of the ordinary model, which can also increase the company’s ton revenue in 2018 to 9,728.
08 yuan / ton, previously +11.
In terms of quarters, the company’s single quarter growth rate decreased quarter by quarter, with Q1-Q4 being 13 in turn.
19% / 14.
The company’s growth rate started to decline in the third quarter. First, the company decided in May 18 to promote the new product “Hot Drink Lulu Almond Dew” in key cities across the country, and at the same time canceled the sales of ordinary Lulu.
The 武汉夜生活网 cultivation of new products usually requires a certain process. After the market accepts them, Lulu tries to become a new profit growth point for the company.
The new product performance is worth looking forward to, and the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to continue to improve.
The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in 20184.
13 ‰, at least -0.
13%, the slight fluctuation in profit was mainly caused by the surge in selling expenses.
We believe that the company’s performance is expected to improve significantly in the future as the cultivation of new products continues to mature.First of all, the launch of the new product Lulu increased the company’s gross profit margin to 50 in 2018.
76%, an increase of 3 over the same period of the previous 17 years.
The company’s next focus is to expand the sales market of new products Lulu, while accelerating channel sinking.
As the proportion of new products Lulu continues to increase, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to continue to improve.
At the same time, the adjustment of the company’s advertising expenses and the adjustment of its expenditure system will help the company more effectively market cultivation and new product promotion, and thereafter will partially promote the growth of sales and income, and improve the company’s profitability.
Brand marketing efforts have been strengthened, and the budget system has been adjusted to stimulate new sales vitality for the company.
The company incurred selling expenses in 20184.
780,000 yuan, +26 a year.
6%, sales expense ratio 22.
53%, an increase of 4.
In order to cooperate with the promotion of new products, the company’s significant expansion of sales expenses in the first half of the year, 2018H1 sales expenses extended 79.
The increase in sales expenses mainly comes from two aspects. The integration is the company’s new product promotion efforts and advertising efforts.
The company’s advertising costs in 2018 were 2.
$ 3.5 billion, an increase of 55 per year.
The company builds a bridge between brands and consumers by combining new marketing models of online marketing and offline promotion.
At the same time, the company has adjusted the sales staff’s income composition from 2018 to make the income directly linked to performance.
Increase investment in the front line of sales, through system management, grasp personal performance and income in real time, and stimulate their enthusiasm and subjective initiative.
We believe that the adjustment of the company’s advertising costs and the adjustment of its bidding system will effectively stimulate the company’s sales vitality and provide a good foundation for the company’s future performance growth.
In the future, as the new product market gradually matures, the increase in the company’s selling expenses is expected to weaken.
Conclusion: With the continuous promotion of new products Lulu and sinking of channels, coupled with consumers’ favor of the concept of “healthy drinks”, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s future development.
The company is expected to achieve operating income in 2019-2021.
2.8 billion, 23.
5 billion and 24.
9.2 billion, an annual increase of 4.
50% and 6.
01%, achieving a net profit of 4.
5.7 billion, 5.
1.1 billion and 5.
7.5 billion per year.
70% and 12.
EPS are 0.
52 and 0.
59 yuan, currently the corresponding PE is 19 respectively.
82x and 15.
81x, give the company a “Recommended” rating.
Risk reminders: food safety issues, the decline in plant protein industry demand, the company’s new product promotion is less than expected, etc.